SESSION RECAP: 2025 Federal Budget and Tax Outlook

With a new President, Administration, and Congress, critical federal safety net programs that support children and families including Medicaid, SNAP, housing, and early childhood are facing serious cuts this year. A high-stakes tax policy debate that includes $4 trillion in tax cuts from the expiring 2017 Tax Cuts and Job Act will set the stage for reductions in health and human service programs that will impact every community in America and touch every corner of philanthropic work — early childhood, health care, state and local government services, climate change, housing, senior services, family support services, and much more. With significant attacks on government, philanthropy and the communities they serve have much at stake.

Video Recording + Slides: The video recording and slides for this session are available by request to grantmakers who work for a qualifying philanthropy. Contact Cema Siegel at [email protected] for more information.

 

Framing:

With Republican control of the House, Senate, and presidency, the Trump Administration’s plan to make sweeping budget and tax policy changes has strong momentum. But making deep cuts to Medicaid and SNAP and enacting tariffs that inevitably raise the cost of basic household needs disproportionately affects low- to moderate-income families and goes against the Trump Administration’s campaign promise to protect the working class. To garner bipartisan support for protecting the budget and tax policies working families depend on, it is imperative that funders and the advocacy community work together to demonstrate the human impact of these proposals – who wins and who loses – and what’s worth investing in versus leaving behind.

 

Recap:

While budget and tax policy decisions can often feel disconnected from the everyday lives of American families, they make a tremendous impact on federal, state, and local governments’ ability to provide families with economic security and wealth-building opportunities. Since taking office in January 2025, the Trump Administration has announced plans to make several major changes to budget and tax policies that may seem disparate at first glance, but are all part of an overarching and longstanding disagreement between Democrats and Republicans about how the public sector should meet the needs of the American people and the communities they live in. Now more than ever, using accessible messaging that centers people and how they will be affected by these policy changes is especially important.

If enacted, the Trump Administration’s budget agenda is expected to increase poverty, remove health care coverage for millions of Americans, and increase the deficit. The agenda extends and adds to the 2017 tax cuts which were expensive, disproportionately benefited higher-income earners, and failed to deliver on their economic promises. It makes deep cuts to Medicaid by overturning important regulations that improve the quality and accessibility of nursing home care, takes coverage away from people who cannot meet work requirements, caps Medicaid funding for certain groups, and shifts costs to states, forcing them to reduce eligibility and benefits if they can’t provide sufficient funding.

Thankfully, research and polling data shows that there is strong public support for Medicaid, and Republicans in Congress are expressing nervousness about making cuts to the program. As funders and advocates communicate about the importance of protecting Medicaid, it’s vital to underscore that this is a program that provides health care to 72 million people across the United States – almost everyone knows at least one person who benefits from it, and who could be harmed by any potential cuts. And there is still work to be done to help the general public and policymakers better understand the importance of protecting Medicaid for those who can’t meet the work requirements. Offering examples of who these people are and why they may not be able to work – whether that’s because they’re taking care of a family member or recovering from illness – helps to humanize the issue and build understanding.

The Trump Administration’s budget agenda also proposes to reduce student loan forgiveness and make borrowing by current students more expensive, enact an array of tariffs on certain countries and goods, cut Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits by 20%, shift the cost of the program to states, and end the program for people who can’t meet certain work requirements. Though not as wide-reaching as Medicaid, SNAP benefits well over 10% of the country, with 40 million recipients each year. Sharing the stories of who these recipients are and how their lives will be impacted by harmful cuts to the program will be equally important in the months ahead.

How are field leaders working together to oppose this harmful agenda? The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has developed a blueprint for opposition centered on six key actions:

1. Blocking harmful policy actions when possible
2. Delaying action to limit the time a harmful policy is in effect
3. Mitigating the burden of harmful policies when they can’t be stopped
4. Documenting the impact on people to build a case for undoing harmful policies later
5. Looking for opportunities to make progress where possible, and;
6. Continuing to lay the groundwork for future advances

Experts from Family Values @ Work Action, the State Revenue Alliance, and the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families endorse the value of these actions in their work to build and support grassroots advocacy efforts to protect families and communities. They emphasize the importance of collecting polling data to demonstrate to lawmakers how voters think about the impact of the tax system, county- and state-level data to illustrate the human impact of policy proposals, and efforts to “train the trainers” by equipping state and community leaders with the information they need to educate their own memberships, in-state media, and representatives and to organize against harmful policy actions. The policy decisions made in Washington, D.C. can often times feel disconnected from the people and communities across the country who are directly impacted by them, but advocates underscore that it is these very people and communities that hold the most power at the federal level when they are well-supported and well-aligned.

Related Resources:

• The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities is producing a series of briefs on the high-stakes federal policy debates that will take place this year, including briefs on the tax debate and policies that take food assistance and health coverage away from people who need them. In addition, CBPP is writing on executive actions, focusing largely on those that affect people with low or moderate incomes. You can follow the latest in this searchable executive action tracker.
• State Revenue Alliance’s Amber Wallin shares the states’ perspective on the 2025 national tax fight in Bloomberg, Tax Notes, and Common Dreams.
• Carol Joyner, Executive Director of Family Values @Work Action released a statement on Trump’s attempted halt to all federally supported loan and grant programs.
• Read Family Values @ Work Action’s 2025 Tax Fight Overview.
• Georgetown University Center for Children and Families (CCF) released state-specific fact sheets describing how important Medicaid is for children and families and highlighting the potential implications of federal Medicaid cuts.
• Anna Wadia, Executive Director of the Care for All with Respect and Equity (CARE) Fund shares how the care movement is at the forefront of saving Medicaid and our democracy in this op-ed.
• This issue brief by Justice in Aging shares how Medicaid funding caps would harm older adults.
• Read Zero to Three’s fact sheet on what’s at stake if we reduce federal support for Medicaid.
• This commentary by The Century Foundation explains how threats to Medicaid funding would endanger child care.
• Care for All with Respect and Equity (CARE) Fund handout summarizes grantee efforts on tax/revenue and care collaborations and Medicaid defense.

Many thanks to our 2025 Watch Party Hosts!